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Argief inskrywing:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Boek

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Lewering van: Verenigde State van AmerikaDuitse boekDit is 'n paperback boekNuwe boek
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) of 3639407555

, in Duits, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, Sagteband, Nuwe
New Book. This item is printed on demand. Shipped from US This item is printed on demand.
Data uit 2014-10-19 03:05h
ISBN (alternatiewe skryfwyses): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Argief inskrywing:
9783639407556 - Dominik Beck: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Boek

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Lewering van: DuitslandDuitse boekDit is 'n paperback boekNuwe boekHerdruk
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) of 3639407555

, in Duits, Av Akademikerverlag Mrz 2014, Sagteband, Nuwe, Herdruk
This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware - Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, E.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine 'good' probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme. 92 pp. Englisch
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Data uit 2014-10-19 03:05h
ISBN (alternatiewe skryfwyses): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Argief inskrywing:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Boek

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2012)

Lewering van: DuitslandDuitse boekDit is 'n paperback boekNuwe boekHerdruk
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) of 3639407555

, in Duits, AV Akademikerverlag, Sagteband, Nuwe, Herdruk
This item is printed on demand for shipment within 3 working days.
Data uit 2014-10-19 03:05h
ISBN (alternatiewe skryfwyses): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Argief inskrywing:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Boek

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Lewering van: DuitslandDuitse boekDit is 'n paperback boekNuwe boek
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) of 3639407555

, in Duits, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, Sagteband, Nuwe
New Book. Shipped from UK. This item is printed on demand.
Data uit 2014-10-19 03:05h
ISBN (alternatiewe skryfwyses): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Argief inskrywing:
9783639407556 - Beck, Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Boek

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts

Lewering van: DuitslandDuitse boekDit is 'n paperback boekNuwe boek
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) of 3639407555

, in Duits, Av Akademikerverlag, Sagteband, Nuwe
Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, E.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine "good" probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme.92 S. 220 mmVersandfertig in 3-5 Tagen, Softcover
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Data uit 2015-09-24 16:49h
ISBN (alternatiewe skryfwyses): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6

9783639407556

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Beskikbaar skaars boeke, gebruikte boeke en tweede hand boeke van die titel "Evaluating Probability Forecasts: Theory and Application to Macroeconomic Survey Data" uit Beck, Dominik word gelys heeltemal.

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